Trending News|September 07, 2013 01:20 EDT
Poor Economic Performance May Push a Proposed Interest Rate Increase Later
Traders of short-term U.S. interest-rate futures pushed bets on the Federal Reserve's first rate hike a bit later into 2014 after a government report showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in August.
Fed funds futures prices suggested traders are now betting that the Fed will first raise rates at its October 2014 meeting or later, after the U.S. Labor Department reported 169,000 jobs were added last month.
Economists had expected a rise of 180,000 jobs. The weak report raised questions over whether the Fed will begin to cut its bond-buying stimulus this month, as many economists expected.
Chief U.S. economist, Jim O'Sullivan at High Frequency Economics, says the Friday's disappointing nonfarm payrolls numbers were not as important as most people think, and that the Fed is still on track for a September tapering of economic stimulus.
"Even the Federal Reserve would conclude that the employment trend is moderating, and for that reason alone they probably will have second thoughts about tapering bond purchases this month," said Cary Leahey, a senior advisor at Decision Economics in New York.
Any delay in tapering bond purchases could mean the Fed ends up holding rates near zero for longer.
The market still sees a rate hike earlier than most Fed officials do: in June, all but a few Fed policymakers said they did not expect to raise rates until some time in 2015.
Earlier this week, two Fed board officials agreed the timing for an interest rate increase would likely be pushed back into the fall of next year.